by Eldric Vero
January 16, 2024
This CotD was inspired by the following articles:
1) The San Juan Daily Star “Doctors: Underreported conditions could be adverse effects of COVID-19 vaccinations” (see link: Doctors: Underreported conditions could be adverse effects of COVID-19 vaccinations (sanjuandailystar.com)). From the article: The public hearing was attended by Dr. Ruth Carro, Dr. Julia Vázquez Martirena and Dr. Héctor Cintrón Principe, all of whom expressed opposition to vaccination against COVID-19. Dr. Carro highlighted how patients in her practice are presenting, each more frequently, post-vaccination health situations. “My patients report that they are not the same since they were vaccinated against COVID-19, and when they see their doctor he or she rules out that it is linked to the vaccination”. “Under the principle of first do no harm, there are overarching reasons to request that mandatory inoculation be stopped and that more investigation be done about these adverse effects, even more so in children”.
2) The San Juan Daily Star “Health chief urges prevention, vaccination as COVID cases surge” (see link: Health chief urges prevention, vaccination as COVID cases surge (sanjuandailystar.com)). From the article: Following a surge of COVID-19 cases, Health Secretary Carlos Mellado López urged citizens on Thursday to maintain preventive actions and to get vaccinated to prevent the spread of the illness. “COVID-19 persists, and we cannot lower our guard,” Mellado López said. Extra doses may be administered at the health care provider’s discretion and at intervals determined by the provider. Similarly, pregnant or lactating women should get vaccinated with the bivalent dose.
The author of the CotD has combined analyses of Covid-19 and Excess Deaths (all causes) as these are related.
Panel 1 The first graph is a construct by the author as a standard CotD presentation which illustrates Covid-19 related deaths (CRDs) and vaccinations. The author could only find vaccination data on Total Vaccine Doses in this particular presentation. Puerto Rico’s Covid-19 Related Death (CRD) rate was relatively low for about 5 months after the announcement of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in March 2020. Heading into the winter months of 2020/21, the CRD rate took-off as would be expected for a corona virus in the northern latitudes. However, Puerto Rico lies within the tropics of the Caribbean, so this phenomenon was unusual. The vaccination program started in December 2020 with high injection uptake rates to year-end 2021. The vaccine appeared to be effective as the CRD rate “flattened” temporarily three times (Q2’2021 to Q2’2022) after about 90 percent of total vaccine doses. The CRD rates continued on the same trend into Q1’2023 even-though in the order of 85 percent of the population had been vaccinated. Since 1’2023, the CRD rate has lessened significantly (near zero) in concert with extremely low vaccine injection rates.
Panel 2 Observe the characteristic cyclical nature of deaths or all-cause mortality since 2015. The “Blue” line represents data prior to March 2020 and the “Red” line represents data since the SARS CoV-2 pandemic was initiated in March 2020. The “Green” line represents the “Expected” deaths (CotD Model) based on historical averages. The author has utilized the data for the five year period January 2015 to December 2019 in order to calculate an average normalized pre-pandemic curve for Monthly Deaths. The Expected (CotD Model) deaths incorporates an average 3.0 percent growth factor which appears to be a good match to the overall pre-pandemic trend.
Panel 3 This presents the magnified portion (January 2020 to August 2023) of the graph in Panel 2. The “Orange” line represents “Excess Deaths” which is calculated by subtracting Expected Deaths from Official Deaths.
Panel 4 Based on the data and this author’s model, there have been 13,343 Excess Deaths since the start of the pandemic of which 10,964 (82.2 percent) have occurred since the start of Covid-19 injections in January 2021. This compares to 12,233 Excess Deaths since January 2021 as per the https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-excess-deaths-covid?country=~PRI website. Note the blue-dashed curve is a polynomial (non-linear) best-fit to the data trend. In essence, this reveals that the Excess Death Rate (EDR) is accelerating with time, which is a strong signal something is abnormal within Puerto Rico’s population. Once again, the question is “why is this occurring?
“The problem is not the problem; the problem is your attitude about the problem” Captain Jack Sparrow
