by Eldric Vero
May 5, 2024
This CotD was inspired by two recent articles:
1) Medical Press “Former state epidemiologist says Sweden’s COVID strategy misunderstood” (see link: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2023-11-state-epidemiologist-sweden-covid-strategy.html ). From the article: As countries around the world started extensive lockdowns in response to the spread of the novel coronavirus, Sweden stood out as it opted for more non-coercive measures. Sweden also distinguished itself by never pushing for the widespread use of face masks, and they were only recommended on public transport during the second wave of the pandemic.
2) Reason.com “Study: Sweden’s Laissez Faire Pandemic Policies Paid Off” (see link: https://reason.com/2023/08/29/study-swedens-laissez-faire-pandemic-policies-paid-off/ ). From the article: “It seems likely that Sweden did much better than other countries in terms of the economy, education, mental health, and domestic abuse, and still came away from the pandemic with fewer excess deaths than in almost any other European country, and less than half that of the United States.” Norberg said. The real benefit of Sweden’s more liberal pandemic policies then appears to be that it had far better social and economic outcomes than its neighbors, despite experiencing roughly the same number of excess COVID deaths.
The author of the CotD has combined analyses of Covid-19 and Excess Deaths (all causes) as these are related.
Panel 1 The first graph is a construct by the author as a standard CotD presentation which illustrates Covid-19 Related Deaths (CRDs) and vaccinations. Sweden’s CRD rate was relatively high immediately upon announcement of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in March 2020 and then “flattened” during the summer months (pre-vaccination). However, heading into the winter months of 2020/21, the CRD rate once again took-off as would be expected for a corona virus in the northern latitudes. The vaccination program started in late December 2020 with high injection uptake rates to year-end 2021. The vaccine appeared to be effective as the CRD rate “flattened” in mid-2021 after about 50 percent of the population had been injected. The Booster program waned somewhat in 2023 as did the CRD rates. The Booster program ramped-up again in Q4’2023 with a notable increase in CRDs. Note the mirror-like nature of CRDs-to-Boosters (high-lighted yellow) since the beginning of 2023 and into 2024. This type of vaccine-to-deaths correlation profile is relatively common as presented in previous CotDs.
Panel 2 Observe the characteristic cyclical nature of deaths or all-cause mortality since 2015. The “Blue” line represents data prior to March 2020 and the “Red” line represents data since the SARS CoV-2 pandemic was initiated in March 2020. The “Green” line represents the “Expected” deaths (CotD Model) based on historical averages. The author has utilized the data for the five year period January 2015 to December 2019 in order to calculate an average normalized curve for Monthly Deaths. The Expected Deaths (CotD Model) incorporates an average 0 percent growth factor (i.e. flat rate) which is the lowest to date, however, this appears to be a good match to the overall pre-pandemic trend.
Panel 3 This presents the magnified portion (January 2020 to December 2023) of the graph in Panel 2. The “Orange” line represents “Excess Deaths” which is calculated by subtracting Expected Deaths (CotD Model) from Official Deaths.
Panel 4 Based on the data and this author’s model, 18,681 Excess Deaths have occurred since the start of the pandemic of which 9,340 (50 percent) have occurred since the start of Covid-19 injections in late December 2020. This compares to 20,273 Excess Deaths since March 2020 as per the https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-excess-deaths-covid?country=~SWE website.
“She is a goddess, a warrior worth more than her weight in gold…she is a guardian, a nurturer with spirit of young and soul of old…she has words for all occasions and is wise beyond her years…she has a heart as big as oceans and will always face her fears ” Michelle Schaper
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