by Eldric Vero
September 14, 2024
The following articles are relevant to this CotD:
1) Aljazeera April 6, 2021 “In Serbia COVID vaccine supply outweighs demand amid mistrust” (see link: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/6/supply-of-covid-vaccines-outpaces-demand-amid-hesitancy-in-serbia ). As per the article: Scepticism about the vaccines on offer in Serbia was so high that in early March, Serbian President Vucic begged people to sign up for inoculations in a televised address. “I beg you, get the vaccine. We have [vaccines] and we will have vaccines,” Vucic said, noting that uptake rates were as low as 9.5 percent in some areas. According to some analysts, Serbians have the highest rate of distrust towards vaccines and the highest number of so-called anti-vax movements in the region.
2) The Lancet May 15, 2021 “Serbia begins paying citizens to receive a COVID-19 vaccine” (see link: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01097-7/fulltext ). As per the article: In what local experts say is a world first, Serbia has begun offering cash payments to people to receive COVID-19 vaccinations. President Alexander Vučić said on May 5, that anyone who gets vaccinated by the end of the month would be paid 3000 Dinars (around €25), around 5% of the average monthly salary. Serbia’s scheme has only been running for a few days, but whatever effect it might have on vaccine uptake, Radovanovic (an epidemiologist at the University of Belgrade) said offering the payments has exposed a “failure” of Serbia’s health policy, and blamed a paradoxical government approach to COVID-19 vaccinations for the slow-down in vaccination rates. “Offering money for vaccination is a defeat for health education policy.
The author of the CotD has combined analyses of Covid-19 and Excess Deaths (all causes) as these are related.
Panel 1 The first graph is a construct by the author as a standard CotD presentation which illustrates Covid-19 related deaths (CRDs) and vaccinations. The vaccination program began in February 2021 with no positive effect on reducing the CRD rate. The CRD rate subsided somewhat in mid-2021, however, continued at the same rate even after the booster injections began. The vaccine-to-death correlation appears to be self-evident as the CRD rate continued at a high rate into Q2’2022. The CRD rate peaked at 446 Serbian citizens dying during the week ending November 7, 2021 (64 deaths per day) which was absolutely tragic to say the least. The CRD rate has subsided significantly and is essentially zero since Q2’2023 as injection uptake has ended. Total CRDs to date represent 0.26 percent of the population.
Panel 2 Observe the somewhat heterogeneous cyclical nature of deaths or all-cause mortality since 2015. The “Blue” line represents data prior to March 2020 and the “Red” line represents data since the SARS CoV-2 pandemic was initiated in March 2020. The “Green” line represents the “Expected” deaths (CotD Model) based on historical averages. The author has utilized the five year period January 2015 to December 2019 in order to calculate an average normalized curve for Monthly Deaths. The Expected (CotD Model) deaths incorporates an average 0 percent growth factor which appears to be a good match to the overall trend.
Panel 3 This presents the magnified portion (January 2020 to January 2024) of the graph in Panel 2. The “Orange” line represents “Excess Deaths” which is calculated by subtracting Expected Deaths from Official Deaths.
Panel 4 Based on the data and this author’s model 52,633 Excess Deaths have occurred since the start of the pandemic, of which 36,841 Excess Deaths (70 percent) have occurred since the start of Covid-19 injections in February 2021. This compares to 58,124 Excess Deaths since the start of the pandemic as per the ourworldindata.org website.
“Be humble for you are made of earth…be noble for you are made of the stars” Serbian Proverb
