by Eldric Vero
June 12, 2024
This CotD was inspired by the following:
1) MercoPress “Chile’s health minister wants people to show up for vaccination against Covid-19” (see link: https://en.mercopress.com/2024/01/08/chile-s-health-minister-wants-people-to-show-up-for-vaccination-against-covid-19 ). As per the article: Chile’s Health Minister Ximena Aguilera launched an appeal to the citizenry to update their vaccination schedules given the appearance of the JN.1 variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, also known as Pirola, of which an outbreak is feared after the strain was detected in over 40 countries. According to the American Medical Association (AMA), symptoms can range from those typical of colds, such as cough and congestion, to difficulty in breathing and low oxygen levels that require urgent medical attention. Castro explained that this behavior of the disease was “normal” since Covid-19 had become an “endemic” disease and that the decline of this outbreak will occur in February.
2) Reuters “Chile, a vaccine front-runner, launches fourth COVID dose” (see link: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/chile-vaccine-front-runner-launches-fourth-covid-dose-2022-01-10/ ). As per the article: Chile, one of the world’s fastest movers on COVID-19 vaccines, started its campaign to give fourth doses on Monday to immunocompromised people, a regional first, as infections rise driven by the fast spread of the Omicron variant. “This shows a great advance in terms of health issues,” said Maria Isabel Sandoval, a 61-year-old retired teacher with cancer, who received her dose in a health center in the municipality of La Florida, in the southeast of the capital. Carla Riquelme, 37, a nurse technician who had breast cancer, agreed. “As infections rise, it is ideal to get vaccinated again, to have more booster doses. I feel calmer,” she said.
The author of the CotD has combined analyses of Covid-19 and Excess Deaths (all causes) as these are related.
Panel 1 The first graph is a construct by the author as a standard CotD presentation which illustrates Covid-19 related deaths (CRDs) and vaccinations. The vaccination program began in January 2021 with little effect on the increasing death rate until about the second half of 2021 as the death rate subsided somewhat to a relatively low rate indicating the vaccine program “appeared” to be effective (over 80 percent of the population was fully vaccinated by then). The death rate increased again in Q1’2022 (a data jump-shift anomaly) some 6 to 8 months after the booster program was initiated. The CRD rate has subsided significantly as the vaccine program waned since early 2023.
Panel 2 Observe the characteristic cyclical nature of deaths or all-cause mortality since 2016. The “Blue” line represents data prior to March 2020 and the “Red” line represents data since the SARS CoV-2 pandemic was initiated in March 2020. The “Green” line represents the “Expected” deaths (CotD Model) based on historical averages. The author has utilized the four year period January 2016 to December 2019 in order to calculate an average normalized curve for Weekly Deaths. The Expected (CotD Model) deaths incorporates an average 5 percent growth factor which appears to be a good match to the overall trend.
Panel 3 This presents the magnified portion (January 2020 to January 2024) of the graph in Panel 2. The “Orange” line represents “Excess Deaths” which is calculated by subtracting Expected Deaths from Official Deaths. Note the massive spike in Excess Deaths during the years 2020 to 2022.
Panel 4 Based on the data and this author’s model 75,471 Excess Deaths have occurred since the start of the pandemic, of which 59,858 Excess Deaths (79 percent) have occurred since the start of Covid-19 injections in January 2021. This compares to 65,614 Excess Deaths since the start of the pandemic as per the ourworldindata.org website.
“You should never sacrifice these three things…your family, your heart or your dignity.” King Leonidas
