by Harvey Oberfeld
November 3, 2024
Nathan Cullen was one of the NDP’s shining stars … both provincially and federally.
Notice I said “was”.
For more than 20 years, Cullen had served the people of of Skeena-Bulkley Valley: from 2004 to 2019 he won election, re-election and re-election again to Parliament in Ottawa as the local MP, served as NDP Finance critic and House Leader for the Official Opposition; in 2020, back home, he won election as the area’s MLA and over the years served as NDP Minister of Municipal Affairs, Minister of Fisheries and Minister of Lands and Resources.
Ahhh! Minister of Lands and Resources!
It was during Cullen’s tenure that the NDP came up with its ill-fated proposed changes to the BC Lands Act, which would give First Nations equal say with the provincial Legislature (ie. the government) over the future use of BC Crown lands.
The proposal had been “shelved” by the NDP government last February … but for many voters in Bulkley Valley-Stikine, apparently that was not good enough.
I sounded an alarm on this Blog that the contentious proposal was not getting a lot of attention in the media during the election campaign: https://harveyoberfeld.ca/the-forever-issue-that-should-be-fully-discussed-debated-before-election-day/.
The issue was subsequently raised during the Leaders’ Debate and Premier David Eby later conceded it had “created huge anxiety in the business community, in rural communities.”
On Oct. 19, Cullen suffered his first ever election loss … a bad one … and was tossed from office. Conservative Sharon Hartwell captured 52.3% of the vote; Cullen only 38.8%.
(For those interested, here’s another analysis of Cullen’s loss: https://thenarwhal.ca/bc-election-northwest-nathan-cullen/.)
Cullen, however, was not the only NDP incumbent who lost his seat to a Conservative challenger.
Five NDP Cabinet Ministers were among the 15 total MLA incumbents who lost their jobs October 19.
The NDP barely held on to power (capturing 47 seats to the Conservatives 44 and Greens 2), and it was quite startling how blue the province’s election results map had suddenly turned and how the NDP’s orange footprint had shrunk.
The political implications of the BC election outcome could extend far beyond the province’s border.
Such a huge shift to the Conservatives in BC, if sustained in the next federal election, would be devastating for the federal NDP!
The party currently holds 25 seats in Parliament … with more than HALF of them … 13 … representing BC ridings.
Just think about what that same major shift to Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives in BC federally would do to the NDP in Ottawa!
The federal NDP is already very thinly represented outside BC: Ontario 5 MPs; Manitoba 3; Alberta 2; Quebec 1; and, Nunavut 1. And who knows how many of those might also “go” Conservative in the next federal vote?
The latest polling from “338Canada.com”, published Oct. 27, would give the Conservatives a majority government with 217 seats, the Liberals 59 seats; the Bloc Quebecois 44 and the NDP 21.
And the survey projects the NDP would be reduced to only THREE federal MPs from BC … with the Conservatives taking 33 seats, the Liberals 6, the Greens 1 .
For the Liberals, it would be a defeat: for the NDP, it would be a catastrophe.
Perhaps it’s not just the Liberals who should be looking for a new leader and a new approach … as their only hope of resuscitating popular appeal?
Strange, the federal implications of the BC provincial election are not getting the attention they should.
Maybe now they will. 
